Henning: Tigers have issues bigger than Brad Ausmus
Al Avila stepped into the Tigers clubhouse Sunday afternoon, a few minutes after the Tigers’ season and playoff drive had crashed in a 1-0 loss at Atlanta.
A general manager was asked about his thoughts, beginning with this season’s pained purge from the postseason.
“We took it to the last game,” said Avila, who, alien to his normal conversational style, chose to say nothing more.
And that was because he couldn’t say anything.
Yet.
Nothing about Brad Ausmus’ future as Tigers manager. Not a clue about what needed to change in 2017 and beyond. No general remarks about a giant payroll so heavy the Tigers were required to pay luxury tax that almost certainly won’t be paid in 2017 when the penalty rises.
But there will be conversation directed by the GM. Perhaps this week, perhaps early next week, about a baseball team’s plans to alter its roster and return to serious contention.
If, in fact, that’s possible in the short term.
It might be wishing for too much – the idea you can contend in 2017, chop payroll, and still build a team that will preclude a long, possibly stark rebuilding era.
Avila’s to-do list, in rough order, will involve a deep conversation with the Ilitches (owner Mike, and probably son, Chris) about various vital issues:
What to do about the manager.
The first question asked by fans, ironically, is the least impactful in terms of how the Tigers shape up in 2017.
And that’s because Ausmus, contrary to those who think a levers-puller wins or loses games and pitchers and hitters don’t, had little to do with the Tigers going 86-75 in 2016. Nor did Tigers manager Jim Leyland personally and by his skipper’s wiles deliver two World Series teams and four division winners during his time in Detroit, which, not coincidentally, led to the same screams for his scalp by the same element that now wants Ausmus replaced.
The front office knows better. The baseball world knows better. And the simple fact is Ausmus is the least of the Tigers’ problems and may in fact qualify as an asset because of players’ comfort and belief in him and the front office’s, as well. They know he will be hired soon enough by another team and, depending upon the quality of team he inherits, will win in the fashion of any manager whose fate is roster-dependent.
That doesn’t mean Ausmus will be renewed. And that’s because ownership will have the final say on Avila’s probable wish to extend Ausmus and the coaching staff.
The Ilitches may, in fact, be upset that attendance dipped in 2016 to its lowest point since 2005. And while managers affect attendance in minimal ways, and generally only at the outset, the family may decide it wants a new man.
The counter-argument, one the Ilitches understand, is that in Detroit or elsewhere any new manager has a brief honeymoon. And then it’s open season on him in the same manner it was with Leyland and now with Ausmus. The question is: Has ownership joined the critics?
No new manager will fare any better with the Tigers in 2017 than a different skipper would have succeeded in Detroit the past two seasons when the greatest determinant for success – pitching – was 28th among 30 big-league teams in 2015 and 20th the past season.
By comparison, all eight of 2015’s playoff teams finished in the top 10 in pitching while this year’s finished in the top nine.
In baseball, it’s mostly about pitching, as the Tigers confirmed during their playoff runs under Leyland. Detroit’s pitching then was top-tier. It no longer is anything close to elite, or even playoff-grade.
Roster fixes are essential.
Begin with the Tigers’ outfield defense. It is sub-grade and costs the team doubly because of Comerica Park’s expanse. Justin Upton in left is below-average. Cameron Maybin is adequate in center, but only adequate, and has a sub-par arm. J.D. Martinez is serviceable in right but merely serviceable.
The Tigers need help in the outfield. But getting help won’t be easy, at least quickly.
JaCoby Jones, who would upgrade Detroit’s outfield defense by a full gear, has work to do on his plate discipline and might or might not help in 2017. For now, Maybin will remain in center as the Tigers likely pick up his $9 million option for 2017. Do not, however, dismiss Maybin from upcoming trade talks. He could be packaged in a larger deal.
Upton is probably a fixture in left, for now, because of an expensive contract.
J.D. Martinez is the best bet to be part of autumn trade chatter. He has a glorious bat, is 29, and is signed only through 2017. The Tigers will listen not only because they must part with quality trade chips to get better, but also because the team must prune payroll heading into 2017.
About that payroll …
It was pushing $210 million in 2016, which left the Tigers paying somewhere in the vicinity of $4 million in taxes. The problem is that penalties grow in subsequent years: to 30 percent of the overrun ($189 million was 2016’s ceiling) in a second consecutive year of surpassing the ceiling. Then to 40 percent in a third year, and 50 percent if you’re past the line for a fourth straight year.
The Tigers aren’t, in fact, dealing only with luxury-tax headaches here. They’re not in a market that can sustain maximum payrolls, particularly after their attendance this year (2.49 million compared with 2.73 million in 2015) fell more than 500,000 shy of the figure they now know they can reach: 3 million.
Unless the Ilitches have decided differently, a Tigers front office understands it must pare salaries ahead of 2017. That means some expensive players are headed for the auction block.
Leading the parade there, to repeat, could be J.D. Martinez. He isn’t overly expensive – in fact he’s a bargain at $11.5 million for 2017. But he is both marketable for a team that needs help at so many places, beginning with its pitching staff, and he would help decrease by a serious number the team’s cash obligations next season.
Next in line: Justin Verlander.
The very thought of dispensing with Verlander stings and / or infuriates fans who wonder how this team would survive without its Cy Young Award-contending ace.
And they’re right to idolize Verlander and acknowledge his inimitable value.
But here is why the Tigers must, and will, listen.
Verlander will make $28 million in 2017, with another $56 million owed through 2019. He turns 34 in February. He would fetch a luscious return this offseason from a team such as the Dodgers, which probably needs a star like Verlander to help its World Series plans. The Dodgers also have young talent the Tigers as a practical matter should begin adding immediately. Verlander would need to OK any deal, and don’t for a moment think he’d turn down L.A.
Also possible is that Upton played his way into trade whispers after he rescued 2016 and nearly drove the Tigers into the playoffs with his late power surge. He clubbed 31 home runs and might be enticing, even if he makes $22 million, with $110 million remaining, as well as an opt-out clause at the end of 2017.
Upton’s a longshot to be dealt. Martinez, and even Verlander, are not.
Position fixes elsewhere are on the light side.
The Tigers are set at first base (a man name Miguel Cabrera), second base (Ian Kinsler, who is nearly indispensable and relatively affordable), third base (Nick Castellanos), and shortstop (Jose Iglesias), although the Tigers would consider Iglesias in a trade package that doesn’t leave a hole at short.
They have a starting catcher in James McCann who played the 2016 season with a sore ankle and whose bat is likely to show heavy progress in 2017. Their backup catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, is headed elsewhere for sure and could be replaced by a local oldie, Alex Avila, who had a fine year as the White Sox backup (57 games, seven home runs, low .213 batting average, high .359 on-base percentage, with a .732 OPS and even sharper skills as a defender and pitch-caller).
The Tigers will almost certainly retain Andrew Romine and perhaps Tyler Collins as bench options and will wait and see what develops with prospects Jones and Steven Moya, as well as two young outfielders who could get involved in 2017: Mike Gerber and Christin Stewart, each of whom bats left-handed.
Repairing the pitching staff.
This is why the Tigers need to be wary about 2017. If they don’t get realistic about their pitching, they’ll once again fail upcoming playoff trips that didn’t materialize in 2015, and again in 2016.
They need help. Lots of it. And principally, to boil a complex science to its simplest element, they need harder throwers.
Those who oppose trading Verlander, or others, should remember the Tigers’ pitching was saved in 2016 only because of deadline deals in 2015 that brought aboard Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, and Matt Boyd.
The team needs a similar infusion now. The bullpen has too few strikeout pitchers. And the rotation, even with the kids helping, still features a surplus of risks. Jordan Zimmermann should be healthy in 2017 and figures to help, but he by no means is a strikeout pitcher. He relies mainly on command that a sore neck sabotaged during his pained 2016 season.
Anibal Sanchez is in and out and perhaps might be headed for the bullpen again in 2017. Pelfrey, the single biggest bungle made by Avila and his staff, cannot be counted on except, perhaps, as an expensive ($8 million) long reliever, if that.
And so the Tigers have work to do. Good luck to them if they can achieve their ideal goal, which is to make the playoffs in 2017, contend in ensuing years, and at the same time trim payroll without trading Martinez or Verlander.
Or even both, as might be the case by the time December’s Winter Meetings end and a more fine-tuned club prepares for spring camp.
lynn.henning@detroitnews.com
Twitter.com/Lynn_Henning