Gurley's success in LA a case study for Lions considering Bijan Robinson

Allen Park — As the NFL continues to devalue the position, it's been five years since a team has selected a running back in the first 20 picks of the draft. Following the New York Giants taking Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 choice in 2018, there have been just four running backs who have come off the board in the first round, and none earlier than the 24th pick.

And while we might not see a team invest a top-five asset in the position any time soon, Texas running back Bijan Robinson is widely viewed as the best prospect since Barkley, and a good bet to be selected in the first half of the first round later this week.

The Detroit Lions hold two picks in Thursday's opening round, No. 6 and No. 18.

At six, it's probably too early, for the positional value reasons stated above. For as much as a running back can successfully impact an offense in a given season, football has evolved into a more passing-heavy game the past two decades. Additionally, the position experiences a greater diminishing rate of return than most others, with mounting durability concerns and declining production by the time a player is in line for a second contract, entering the fifth year of their career.

Many analysts would argue, based on those same facts, Robinson would still be a poor value at No. 18. But Lions GM Brad Holmes has seen how a premium talent in the backfield can elevate a roster. While working as the college scouting director of the Rams, the team snagged Todd Gurley with the No. 10 pick in 2015.

And while the aforementioned production decline caught up to Gurley as it so often does with backs, he was stellar through his initial deal with the Rams, rushing for 5,404 yards and 58 touchdowns in five seasons, posting MVP-caliber numbers in 2017 and 2018, when the Rams finished No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring.

That successful stretch is lost on Holmes, who constantly hammers home that prospects must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, despite any individual or overarching narratives that exist.

"Yeah, I just kind of look at it as they're all football players," Holmes said. "They're all football players and if they can help you, they can help you. I understand the narrative about (running backs), but if you think that player is that good, then if he's out there producing for you, I don't think anybody's going to look back and say in 2016 or '17 or '18, 'Wow, Todd (Gurley), he really picked him at 10.' No, he was just a really good running back and he was one of the top prospects in the draft. We didn't really bat an eye about it."

That would suggest, yes, Robinson would be in play for the Lions at No. 18, if he's still on the board. Of course, that would be weighed against the grades and potential impact of other players also available at that spot. Presumably, the Lions would also need to consider how the player fits after signing veteran David Montgomery to a lucrative three-year, $18 million contract this offseason.

jdrogers@detroitnews.com

Twitter: @Justin_Rogers